理悅CEMA•知與行系列研讨會2024年第二講将于3月21日（周四）中午12:00-13:30在學術會堂712會議室舉行，由外經濟貿易大學助理教授李翊良報告 “The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory”，歡迎感興趣的師生參加。

【題目】：The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory

【摘要】：We study the causal effects and policy implications of global supply chain disruptions. We construct a new index of supply chain disruptions from the mandatory automatic identification system data of container ships, developing a novel spatial clustering algorithm that determines real-time congestion from the position, speed, and heading of container ships in major ports around the globe. We develop a model with search frictions between producers and retailers that links spare productive capacity with congestion in the goods market and the responses of output and prices to supply chain shocks. The co-movements of output, prices, and spare capacity yield unique identifying restrictions for supply chain disturbances that allow us to study the causal effects of such disruptions. We document how supply chain shocks drove inflation during 2021 but that, in 2022, traditional demand and supply shocks also played an important role in explaining inflation. Finally, we show how monetary policy is more effective in taming inflation after a global supply chain shock than in regular circumstances.

【報告人簡介】：李翊良是對外經濟貿易大學國際經濟貿易學院的助理教授。他的研究方向為宏觀經濟學、國際貿易和交通經濟學的交叉領域。他在2022年從牛津大學獲得了經濟學博士學位，并在聯合國、國際貨币基金組織和世界銀行等國際組織的工作中積累了寶貴經驗。

【時間】：2024年3月21日（周四）中午12:00-13:30

【地點】：韦德体育bevictor學院南路校區學術會堂712會議室

中國經濟與管理研究院
2024年3月18日