講座預告|陳衡：Trend, Cycle and Expectation Formation

理悅CEMA•知與行系列研讨會2024年第四講将于5月10日（周五）中午10:00-11:30在學術會堂712會議室舉行，由香港大學副教授陳衡報告 “Trend, Cycle and Expectation Formation”，歡迎感興趣的師生參加。

【題目】：Trend, Cycle and Expectation Formation

【摘要】：We characterize how forecasters form expectations when they cannot perfectly distinguish between trends and cycles. This model is motivated by a set of findings from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which reveal various patterns in forecasting behaviors across different forecast horizons. These facts are inconsistent with the common assumption in the expectation formation literature that trends are stable or observable. Our framework can be applied to account for changes in forecasting behavior following the introduction of explicit inflation targeting in 2012. We also extend the model to incorporate behavioral biases so as to address empirical puzzles documented in the literature.

【報告人簡介】： Heng Chen, Associate Professor at Hong Kong University. Heng CHEN finished his PhD studies at the University of Zurich in 2010.  Before he moved to Switzerland, Heng has also studied at Harvard University, Stockholm University and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. His research areas include learning and information acquisition in macroeconomics and political economy. In particular, he works on topics related to financial, economic and political crises, belief formation and news market. He published papers at AEJ: Micro, EJ, IER, JEDC, and American Political Science Review.

【時間】：2024年5月10日（周五）中午10:00-11:30

【地點】：韦德体育bevictor學院南路校區學術會堂712會議室

中國經濟與管理研究院
2024年5月7日