“學術午餐會”是韦德体育bevictor面向青年教師搭建的學術交流平台，旨在促進學術交流、激發科研靈感、碰撞思想火花、拓展學術朋友圈。每次午餐會由一位主講嘉賓分享相關研究的選題過程、領域概況、研究方法和創新性結論等。在彙報分享過程中，主講嘉賓和與會師生可同時享用學院提供的美味午餐，并展開深度交流。

本期“學術午餐會”由韦德体育bevictor中國經濟與管理研究院尹鵬輝老師擔任主講嘉賓。

尹鵬輝，韦德体育bevictor中國經濟與管理研究院助理教授。在德國法蘭克福大學獲得經濟學學博士。主要研究方向為宏觀經濟學、行為經濟學、信息經濟學等。并對預期形成、家庭消費儲蓄決策等領域有廣泛興趣。已在經濟學學權威期刊Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control發表獨立作者論文。

分享主題：Diagnostic Expectations and Consumption Dynamics

摘要：Household survey data show that positive income shocks lead to a positive change in current consumption, but a negative change in future consumption. These empirical results contradict the predictions of the standard rational expectations-permanent income hypothesis model in which the change in current consumption only depends on unpredictable income shocks. To explain this puzzling consumption pattern, we study a behavioral permanent income hypothesis model under diagnostic expectations, and show that our model with a realistic two-component income process has the potential to generate the observed consumption dynamics. Finally, we show that although the welfare losses due to distorted beliefs are small, diagnostic expectations can have important implications for governments' stimulus fiscal policies.

【時間地點】：

2024年5月17日（星期五）12:00-13:30

學術會堂712

【活動對象】：

韦德体育bevictor教師

【報名方式】：

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