研讨論文

Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism (European Economic Review. Carvalho, Ferrero and Nechio. 2016)

主講人

朱景明（中經管2022級碩士生）

上期回顧

Last time, we considered a model with social security. In principle, we may have expected that if the government provides transfers after retirement, individuals would have less enthusiasm to save during employment, and this effect would have muted the impact of the demographic transition on the real interest rate. This channel is at work during the early stages of the simulation, but not quantitatively significant. As the demographic transition continues, maintaining a constant level of transfers to a larger pool of retirees requires that output increases at the same pace. The only way the economy can achieve this higher growth rate is through savings and investment. Therefore, the real interest rate must fall. A higher population growth implies a higher saving rate, because future transfers will be even higher, in spite of the positive contribution to output that a larger number of workers provide.

本期預告

We will analyze the relationship between demographic data and real interest rates. We will first discuss the calibration of the model, and then analyze the results of two main quantitative experiments, including a fall in the population growth rate and an increase in survival probability.  

時間

1月25日12:30-15:00

地點

學術會堂712

點評老師

王忏 明洋

活動對象

韦德体育bevictor、金融學院學生

人數規模

30人

主辦單位

韦德体育bevictor中國經濟與管理研究院、金融學院